After Singapore and China recently turned out amazing 2nd quarter GDP numbers confirming the notion that Asia would be the first one to return to growth and will be the new driver of the world economy, world-renowned economist Nouriel Roubini (one of the handful that predicted the financial crisis) now predicts the US recession may end this year.
Good news, indeed for everyone specially for our employers !! It has been well publicized lately that the recession has somewhat eased the nursing shortage temporarily but the shortage is still there and will come back with a vengeance when the recession ends. Not to mention, it will coincide with the anticipated deadly 2nd wave of the pandemic flu in the fall and winter. The US President is fully aware of this as well when he met recently with ANA during a health care reform meeting.
The US is also known to lay off workers very fast and/or apply hiring freezes in times of downturns but is also known to turn around and hire workers just as fast.
The US Fed has also been saying the same thing for the last couple of months. Economist Nouriel Roubini's similar assessment has just given more credibility on that notion due to the fact he was one of the only few economists that actually predicted the financial crisis when majority were saying it will never happen or if it does it will be a quick and shallow run-of-the-mill recession.
U.S. Recession May End This Year, Roubini Predicts
Excerpts:
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- The worst U.S. recession in at least five decades may be over at year’s end, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the financial crisis.
“We might be at the bottom or close to the bottom,” Roubini said in a speech today at a Chilean investors’ conference in New York. “In many ways the worst is behind us in terms of economic and financial conditions,” he said, cautioning that “the recession might continue through the end of the year.”
Roubini’s comments helped send stocks higher for a fourth day, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gaining 0.9 percent to 940.74 at 4:05 p.m. in New York. In a statement Roubini issued later in the day, he said his comments today on the recession ending by year-end were consistent with views he “expressed previously” and that he continues to see a “shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery.”
*Full article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aVF49siTiJ9k
*Related threads:
Nurses role on HC overhaul: http://foreign-nurse.lefora.com/2009/07/15/nurses-will-have-role-in-us-heath-care-bill-overha/page1/
WH sees robust growth for nurses: http://foreign-nurse.lefora.com/2009/07/14/white-house-sees-robust-job-growth-for-nurses-and-/page1/
I really hope the recession does end this year. If the economy starts picking up again and at the same time, the healthcare reform bill becomes a reality, employers will surely be hiring like crazy. 
Just a thought guys.
I really hope the recession does end this year. If the economy starts picking up again and at the same time, the healthcare reform bill becomes a reality, employers will surely be hiring like crazy. [image]
Just a thought guys.
-tabachingdj
Add in the pandemic flu scare w/c is already evolving to something nasty before our eyes. WHO already said that it is the fastest-moving pandemic flu ever.
UPDATE
This has been a day of good economic news for the U.S.
This day will probably be remembered as the day where reputable economic experts and authorities had unknowingly almost simultaneously reported declaring the "US Recession is over".
Also, when financial giant Goldman Sachs says something or makes strong statements their word is always taken at face value by economic watchers and even by their competitors around the world because of their credibility. Their word is still "Golden" up to now since they are the only US financial giant that was relatively not affected by the "Great Recession".
Statements from economists that predicted the recession in the first place ahead of everybody such as Roubini and Gartman will also be taken more seriously than other economists that were caught unaware (some even caught totally by surprise).
So, when these reputable economists and financial institution makes such strong statements they are always taken seriously.
Recession is over, says economist
According to Dennis Gartman, a number of indicators point to a recovery that is just getting started.
Excerpts:
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When economist Dennis Gartman told subscribers of his newsletter in the fall of 2007 that the U.S. was entering a recession, the Dow was at 13,500, and the official government call wouldn't come for another full year.
Now he's ahead of officials and forecasters again. According to Gartman, the U.S. recession that started in December 2007 is done.
"We saw it happen two weeks ago -- it's over," he said in a recent interview.
Other well-known economists and market watchers have recently been hinting at the same thing. NYU economics professor Nouriel Roubini, also known as "Dr. Doom" for his prescient predictions of the worldwide downturn, says the U.S. recession will end later this year. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last weekend that the recession is easing. And President Obama told Univision last week, "We maybe are beginning to see the end of the recession."
But Gartman says the Great Recession ended in July.
*Click here to read the full article: http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/06/news/economy/economy_over_economist.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009080612
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New U.S. bull market has begun: Goldman Sachs' Cohen
*Full article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090806/bs_nm/us_usa_stocks_goldman_cohen
UPDATE
After about 2 months of different independent and credible economists have been saying that the recession was likely over and has bottomed out in July, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his own assessment and confirms the general consensus that the recession is indeed likely over. Good news, no matter how we slice it !!
Bernanke says recession ‘very likely over’
Excerpts:
“From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point,” Bernanke said in responding to questions at the Brookings Institution. “It’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time because many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was.”
*Full article: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32858855/ns/business-economy_in_turmoil/
May God let this news have positive impact for us all-Amen.
UPDATE
This bit of good news practically makes the general consensus semi-official that the US recession indeed ended in the 2nd qtr and will be having positive growth in the 3rd qtr since Dec. 2007 where the recession started.
Projections by the polled private economists predicts the 3rd qtr GDP probably grew at +3.6% and the 4th qtr will have a GDP of +2.4%. The GDP for the whole 2009 will still be negative owing to the the very big dip in the 1st qtr. but considerably less than earlier projections and helped by positive growths in the 3rd and 4th qtr. They predict GDP for full 2009 to be -2.5%.
Projections for full year 2010 is expected to be around + 2.5%.
U.S. Q3 Growth Seen Strongest in 2 Years
Excerpts:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely grew at its strongest rate in two years during the third quarter, rebounding from a steep downturn that began in December 2007, according to survey of top economists released on Saturday.
Private economists polled October 5-6 for the Blue Chip Economic Indicators October survey said gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent in the quarter, up 0.2 percentage point from what they estimated a month earlier.
A forecast for a 2.4 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter was unchanged from last month mostly due to economists' belief that the 'cash for clunkers' incentive program, which expired in August, pulled demand for vehicles forward into the third quarter, the survey showed.
For the whole of 2009, Blue Chip forecasts the economy will shrink 2.5 percent, slightly below the 2.6 percent contraction forecast in September. In 2010 it will likely expand at a 2.5 percent pace, up from 2.4 percent seen last month.
*Read full article: http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=8797108
UPDATE
It's now official. The U.S. is indeed now out of the recession. 
Economy grows in 3Q, signals end of recession
Excerpts:
WASHINGTON – The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes.
The Commerce Department's report Thursday delivered the strongest signal yet that the economy entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.
Even if the economy climbs back into positive territory in the third quarter, it will be up to another group to declare the recession over. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a panel of academics, is in charge of dating the beginning and ends of recessions. It usually makes it determinations well after the fact.
*Read full article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091029/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy
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