WHO: Swine flu originating in Mexico could develop into a pandemic
Image from Wikimedia commons
In a fast developing situation, 68 in Mexico City has been confirmed to have died already from the Swine flu. There are 6 cases found in Southern CA and 2 in Texas but CDC re-iterated that they recovered from it already. 75 Students in Queens, NY are also being currently tested after reports of flu-like symptoms.
Mexico City has closed schools, and other public places such as Museums and the like.
Read article from CNN.
For more information on the Swine flu readers can go to CDC
Swine flu update
103 deaths in Mexico has so far been confirmed due to the Swine flu. At least 20 people in CA, Texas, Kansas and Ohio have been confirmed to have the infection but are said to be mild and have recovered already without any medical interventions.
Meanwhile, more than a hundred students in Queens, NY are said to have flu-like symptoms but only 8 are so far are the only ones that are confirmed to be infected with the Swine flu. However, there were a total of 12 students that visited Cancun, Mexico during the spring break. Would not be surprised if the other 4 will eventually be confirmed to have it.
Schools in CA, NY and Texas have been closed down to be dis-infected.
Children, the elderly and the immuno-compromised are the ones always at risks with any type or form of flu.
For more details see article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_re_us/us_swine_flu_states
Swine flu update
40 cases in the US are now confirmed to be infected; 6 in Canada and 1 in Spain. 2 suspected in France and 22 students suspected in New Zealand. No deaths, so far for all confirmed cases outside Mexico
The Swine flu is a type-A influenza virus and it's current strain is a new variation of the H1N1 virus.
It is said to be novel virus where it is a mix of the human virus, the avian flu virus and the pig virus.
There are also some concerns that Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) which gained popularity in the height of the SARS scare and which many Governments has stockpiled throughout the years since SARS may not be as effective because this new strain may have developed resistance to it. However, this concern is not yet confirmed.
Meanwhile, many financial analysts were surprised that the US stock markets seems to be shrugging off the Swine flu news and are still continuing their positive gains in early day trading today. The US stock markets are currently on a 6 straight week gain.
For more articles about the Swine flu, refer to the links below:
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/27/swine.flu.international/index.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=92603§ionid=351020603
Swine flu update
Image taken from Wikimedia commons
2 new confirmed cases found in Scotland. Deaths in Mexico are now believed to be at least 149 and 2,000 people are now hospitalized compared from earlier reports of just 1,600.
Developments are very, very fast. Much faster from what I recall from the SARS scare.
According to medical experts, the flu are affecting people in their prime in Mexico which gives another reason for it's potential to be a pandemic.
The EU health commissioner has also advised against traveling to Mexico and the US and all countries are in the look out for passengers with a history of recent travel to Mexico or any flights originating from Mexico or has a stop-over in the US but original flight was from Mexico.
Hotels in Acapulco, Mexico were also evacuated by Mexican authorities recently.
For more articles about the Swine flu, refer to the links below:
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/27/swine.flu.international/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/27/gupta.qanda/index.html
Swine flu update
CNN reports that WHO just raised the alert level to alert level four indicating that transmission is confirmed to be capable of human-to-human transmission.
There is also report that Hong Kong's Secretary for Food & Health Dr York Chow has raised HK's alert level to 'serious'.
Other countries from around the world are also on their own alert to look out for possible flu suspects.
Swine flu update
Image taken from Wikimedia commons
WHO says it is now 'too late' to contain the Swine flu virus and that countries should just focus on mitigating it's effects. They also said that banning or restricting travel would do little now that it is already widespread.
However, several countries has advised their citizens not to travel unless necessarily so and specially on countries with known confirmed cases already.
Latest updates sees 3 confirmed cases now in New Zealand out of the 22 previously suspected. 1 case is also confirmed in Israel and another 1 in Spain (2 total).
In the latest stats, 90 cases have been confirmed worldwide. These includes 50 in the United States most of which in New York; six in Canada; three in New Zealand; two each in Spain and the United Kingdom; and one in Israel. No deaths yet for all cases confirmed outside of Mexico. Deaths in Mexico so far numbers 152.
For more latest news, go here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8021827.stm
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu.international/index.html
Swine flu update
First death due to Swine flu outside of Mexico confirmed in Texas, USA. The toddler was 23 months old.
Additional cases reported includes 11 additional cases reported by New Zealand health officials, four by Spain, five cases in Britain, three in Germany and one confirmed by Costa Rica's health ministry.
Austria also confirmed 1 case.
Patient zero, believed to be the very first human to get it was identified in Mexico as a 5 year old child. He has fully recovered.
No cases or even reported suspects yet in Asia. From the previous reports there were mention of the Middle east of possible suspects but no reports of confirmation since then.
For more news, go here:
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/29/swine.flu/index.html
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/VIE001386.htm
Swine flu update
Keiji Fukuda, WHO acting assistant director-general, told a news conference in Geneva and televised live in almost all major media that the situation is moving closer to an alert level phase 5 if it continues to spread without signs of slowing down.
The current WHO phase of pandemic alert is 4.
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In nature, influenza viruses circulate continuously among animals, especially birds. Even though such viruses might theoretically develop into pandemic viruses, in Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.
In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.
In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.
Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.
Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature.
In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.
*Source: http://www.who.int/en/
Swine flu update
WHO officially raises alert level to phase 5 (imminent pandemic) from phase 4.
Current level of influenza pandemic alert raised from phase 4 to 5
29 April 2009 -- Based on assessment of all available information and following several expert consultations, Dr Margaret Chan, WHO's Director-General raised the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to 5. She stated that all countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.
Statement by WHO Director-General- Source: http://www.who.int/en/
VIDEO:
H1N1 update
2 May 2009 --
The situation continues to evolve. As of 06:00 GMT, 2 May 2009, 15
countries have officially reported 615 cases of influenza A(H1N1)
infection.
Mexico has reported 397
confirmed human cases of infection, including 16 deaths. The 241 rise
in cases from Mexico compared to 23:30GMT of 1 May reflects ongoing
testing of previously collected specimens. The United States Government
has reported 141 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The
following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no
deaths - Austria (1), Canada (34), China, Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region (1), Denmark (1), France (1), Germany (4), Israel
(2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain
(13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (13).
Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.
WHO advises no restriction of
regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for
people who are ill to delay international travel and for people
developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical
attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.
There is also no risk of infection
from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products.
Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on
a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any
symptoms of influenza-like illness.
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_02/en/index.html
H1N1 update
3 May 2009 --
As of 0600 GMT, 3 May 2009, 17 countries have officially reported 787 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.
Mexico
has reported 506 confirmed human cases of infection, including 19
deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico in the past 48 hours
reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United
States Government has reported 160 laboratory confirmed human cases,
including one death.
The following
countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths -
Austria (1), Canada (70), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), France (2), Germany (6),
Ireland (1), Israel (3), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of
Korea (1), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).
Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.
WHO
advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is
considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel
and for people developing symptoms following international travel to
seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.
Canada
on 2 May reported the identification of the A(H1N1) virus in a swine
herd in Alberta. It is highly probable that the pigs were exposed to
the virus from a Canadian farm worker recently returned from Mexico,
who had exhibited flu-like symptoms and had contact with the pigs.
There is no indication of virus adaptation through transfer from human
to pigs at this time.
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_03/en/index.html
H1N1 update
It should be remembered that eventhough Mexico is reporting that their H1N1 cases are ebbing, in WHO's pandemic phases, phase 6 or pandemic phase has nothing to do with the total number of cases and severity of the disease. It is entirely concern only with the virus' geographical spread or reach and by the way it is going it is still spreading globally. Total numbers and severity does not matter.
So, don't be surprised if WHO raises the alert to phase 6 (pandemic phase) from phase 5 (imminent pandemic) in the next few days if rate of spread to other countries continues.
H1N1 update
7 May 2009 --
As of 06:00 GMT, 7 May 2009, 23 countries have officially reported 2099 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.
Mexico
has reported 1112 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection,
including 42 deaths. The United States has reported 642 laboratory
confirmed human cases, including two deaths.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases
with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (201), China, Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region (1), Colombia (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1),
El Salvador (2), France (5), Germany (9), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1),
Israel (4), Italy (5), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (5), Portugal (1),
Republic of Korea (2), Spain (73), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1) and the
United Kingdom (28).
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_07/en/index.html
H1N1 update
7 May 2009 --
As of 18:00 GMT, 7 May 2009, 24 countries have officially reported 2371 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.
Mexico
has reported 1112 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection,
including 42 deaths. The United States has reported 896 laboratory
confirmed human cases, including two deaths.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (201), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Colombia (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (5), Germany (10), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (6), Italy (5), Netherlands (2), New Zealand (5), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (81), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (32).
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_07/en/index.html
H1N1 update
H1N1 influenza virus
CDC public image
Swine flu, part II or what is called the deadly 2nd wave in past pandemics is what WHO, CDC and the different health authorities from around the world fears and trying to monitor. It is never the first onset, which is always mild, that is feared but the 2nd wave which is when a seemingly non-virulent virus re-emerges and becomes deadly.
The seasonal flu kills 36,000 every year just in the US and around 250,000 to 500,000 worldwide and H1N1 is no way near it but neither did the first wave of the 1918 "Spanish flu". It was the deadly 2nd wave that was the "killer" and it killed those ages 20-40 or persons at their peak as compared to the seasonal flu that targets the elderly, children, and the immuno-compromised.
Similarities between H1N1 and the 1918 flu are that they both started on spring time and most deaths were those seemingly healthy individuals similar to the victims in Mexico. Seasonal flu start at fall and winter times and targets the elderly and children.
This is why health authorities are in alert and trying hard to balance cautious vigilance and appropriate alerts. I do not think the media and health authorities are blowing it out of proportion. The spread waning down now would not deter WHO and other health authorities to discontinue vigilance but would in fact make them more cautious as it only points further to the trends of past deadly pandemics.
For more good reading, go to:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic
http://countusout.wordpress.com/2009/04/30/swine-flu-and-spanish-influenza-the-realist-similarities/
http://www.canada.com/health/swine-flu/echo+1918+pandemic/1541930/story.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/07/swine.flu.future/index.html
H1N1 update:
8 May 2009 --
As of 16:00 GMT, 8 May 2009, 25 countries have officially reported 2500 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.
Mexico has reported 1204 laboratory
confirmed human cases of infection, including 44 deaths. The United
States has reported 896 laboratory confirmed human cases, including two
deaths.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases
with no deaths - Austria (1), Brazil (4), Canada (214), China, Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Colombia (1), Costa Rica (1),
Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (12), Germany (11), Guatemala (1),
Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (6), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (5),
Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (88), Sweden
(1), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (34).
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_08a/en/index.html
H1N1 update:
9 May 2009 --
As of 06:00 GMT, 9 May 2009, 29 countries have officially reported 3440 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.
Mexico
has reported 1364 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection,
including 45 deaths. The United States has reported 1639 laboratory
confirmed human cases, including two deaths. Canada has reported 242
laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Brazil (6), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Colombia (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (12), Germany (11), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (6), Japan (3), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (5), Panama (2), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (88), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (34).
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_09/en/index.html
---------------------
- Quite a jump in number of confirmed cases and countries involved in less than 24 hours time.
H1N1 update
Two new deaths have been confirmed outside Mexico and America. One death is attributed to a woman in Alberta, Canada while another one was confirmed in Costa Rica.
Meanwhile, the US reported their third death. It was a man with alleged underlying heart conditions in Washington State.
For further reading, go to:
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1577534
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009/05/200959174455241987.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090510/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
H1N1 update
11 May 2009 --
As of 06:00 GMT, 11 May 2009, 30 countries have officially reported 4694 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.
Mexico
has reported 1626 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection,
including 48 deaths. The United States has reported 2532 laboratory
confirmed human cases, including three deaths. Canada has reported 284
laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Costa Rica has
reported eight laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Brazil (8), China (2, comprising 1 in China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and 1 in mainland China), Colombia (3), Denmark (1), El Salvador (4), France (13), Germany (11), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (9), Japan (4), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (7), Norway (2), Panama (15), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (95), Sweden (2), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (47).
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_11/en/index.html
H1N1 update
12 May 2009 --
As of 06:00 GMT, 12 May 2009, 30 countries have officially reported 5251 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.
Mexico
has reported 2059 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection,
including 56 deaths. The United States has reported 2600 laboratory
confirmed human cases, including three deaths. Canada has reported 330
laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Costa Rica has
reported eight laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Brazil (8), China (2, comprising 1 in China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and 1 in mainland China), Colombia (3), Denmark (1), El Salvador (4), France (13), Germany (12), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (9), Japan (4), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (7), Norway (2), Panama (16), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (95), Sweden (2), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (55).
*Source: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_12/en/index.html
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